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Union Heavy States Deliver for Biden

Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, all strong labor-dense states, may deliver us the White House

Kris LaGrange's picture
Nov 04, 2020

After two years of campaigning, it looks like the 2020 election is going into overtime. The decision on whether former Vice President Joe Biden will defeat Trump seems to be more and more likely as the minutes go by, but it is relying on some strong union states to deliver a victory for Biden.

The states that Biden needs to win to be elected include Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada. As this article was being written CNN had declared Wisconsin and Michigan for Biden and he is currently leading in Nevada and ballots are still being counted in Pennsylvania.

One piece of good news for Biden is that union voters seem to have come out strong for Biden. Nationally, exit polls (which include early voters and mail-in ballot voters) showed about 19% of voters were in a union household, with 57% of them voting for Biden. In 2016, Clinton only won 51% of these voters. Additionally, this year only 40% of these voters went for Trump, an 8-point drop from 2016.

In Michigan, 22% of voters were union household voters, with 56% of them voting for Biden. In Wisconsin, only 15% of voters were union household voters, but 58% of them were voting for Biden. Finally in Nevada, a state that has turned blue thanks to the work of the Culinary Workers Union, had 19% of voters being in a union household and Biden won 56% of those voters. However, in Pennsylvania, 18% of voters live in a union household although 50% of these voters went for Trump. As of 2:30 PM, Trump was still winning in Pennsylvania.

In these strong union states, it would appear that the shift of just a few percentage points away from Trump could be the difference between four more years of Trump and a Joe Biden Presidency.

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